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Category: current events
And Still It Continues
It is always hazardous to suggest when a war might end, as experience shows that people have been extraordinarily bad in their estimates, especially early in wars. And yet, I thought I saw a reasonable end to the Russia-Ukraine war just a month or so after it started. Russia’s progress was slow and its military …
Victory Day
I read an interesting article recently arguing that Putin may be planning a major offensive of some sort leading up to May 9th, when Russia celebrates Victory Day commemorating its victory over Germany in World War II. The idea is that the Russian people expect some show of strength on that day, and recent comments …
Not Quite a Ceasefire
As you probably know by now, Russia is pulling back from Kiev “in order to create conditions for successful negotiations.” The withdrawal seems to be real, although the reasons for it probably are not. I would imagine that Putin has given up on seizing Kiev, so by pulling back he can avoid further attrition to …
On War Crimes and Trials
Alan Dershowitz has a very interesting video up in which he discusses the possibility of trying Putin in absentia. The gist of it is, he probably won’t be tried in absentia, but Dershowitz thinks we should still have a tribunal of some sort to gather and evaluate the evidence, just so it will be available …
NATO Expansion
I am not an expert on modern international relations, but I know something about how states act and I have an interest in the subject insofar as it can affect my own life. I have been sceptical of NATO expansion since back in the 1990’s, when I was at Yale and NATO’s expansion was a …
Treaty of Istanbul?
As you may have read, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are being carried out in person in Istanbul. This seems like a big win for Turkey’s prestige, and specifically for Recep Erdogan. It also seems like the negotiations are progressing, at least to some extent. Russia is pulling back from around Kiev and Chernigov, and …
The Peace of Westphalia in the news, March, 2022
March was a busy time for people referring to the Peace of Westphalia, mostly because of the Ukraine war. (I wonder what we will call this war when it is done? The Russo-Ukraine War? The 7 Weeks’ War (he suggested optimistically)? The Steppe War?) I got notification of 10 references for March, half of which …
Some Thoughts on Military Details of the War
Apparently some Russian news site recently published casualty figures of 10,000 dead and 16,000 wounded on the Russian side. The numbers were quickly taken down and denounced by Russia as the result of hackers. I have to say that the numbers do seem higher than I would have expected, and the ratio of dead to …
More Details on Peace Talks
Izvestiya has a very interesting article this evening on Russia’s peace talks with Ukraine. The first thing I noticed was that the idea of a national referendum on peace came, not from Russia, but from Zelensky. Elsewhere the article quotes Zelensky as saying Ukraine “wouldn’t give up a foot of its territory,” which sounds brave …
Plan for Peace?
This comes with the usual aveat that I am not an expert, by any means, on the region. However, it is hard to get good news about it, and I have been looking for clues in Izvestiya for what Putin might be willing to settle for. Today’s lead article gives a look at the state …